Iran-US Oil 0DTE Opening Strategy with 83% Win Rate

The Setup

A trader noticed a repeating pattern: when crude oil futures trend down before market open, SPX tends to rally in the first 30 minutes. With the Iran-US situation, oil became a proxy for geopolitical temperature — lower oil = de-escalation = relief rally. He built a system around it.

What the AI Found

1. 1.Oil futures ($CL) had been dropping steadily overnight after news broke that Trump was allowing Iranian tankers through the Strait. Crude was down 2.3% by 9:00 AM — a strong signal.
2. 2.Yesterday's closing flow on next-day expiry: 94 bullish trades totaling $4.4M vs 57 bearish trades totaling $1.1M. That's a 4:1 bullish ratio in dollar terms.
3. 3.SPX closed at 5699 in a negative gamma regime. No positive gamma walls nearby — price was free to move. Large negative gamma 1 point above close meant dealers would amplify any upward move.
4. 4.The SPX $6700 Call opened at $41.15 at 9:30 AM and ran to $56.70 by 9:46 AM — 16 minutes. Exit was taken early because theta decay on 0DTE is brutal.

The Trade

SPX $6700 Call, Mar 17 0DTE. 2 contracts at $40.87 average. Strategy: capture the opening 30-min rally when all 3 filters align (oil down, flow bullish, gamma clear).

The Result

The contract moved from $40.87 to $43.70, a +59% return on this particular trade. Total P&L: +$2,810. The strategy has been traded 12 times with a 10/12 (83%) win rate. As long as oil remains a proxy for geopolitical sentiment, the correlation holds.

The Prompt

Hey Xynth, I want to run my oil-SPX opening range check for today. Here's what I need:

1. Pull up crude oil futures ($CL) and show me the overnight/premarket trend. Is oil trending down heading into the open? Include the % change from yesterday's close.

2. Look at yesterday's closing session options flow on today's SPX 0DTE expiry (last 30 min of flow). Break down the bullish vs bearish dollar volume and trade count. I want to see if there's a clear directional lean.

3. Check SPX gamma positioning. Are we sitting near a positive gamma wall that could pin price, or are we in negative gamma territory where dealers would amplify moves? Show me where SPOT is relative to the key gamma levels.

4. Based on all 3 filters, suggest whether today looks like a good setup for a 0DTE SPX call to capture an opening 30-min rally, or if I should sit this one out. If conditions don't align cleanly, just tell me to skip it.