erickooo0
erickooo0
March 19, 2026

Shorting NVDA Because of the Iran War. Made $2,955 in 30 Days. 77% Win Rate.

Iran war made NVDA choppy. Paper traded a shorting strategy for a month, then went live with $10K. 13 trades, 10 wins, 3 losses, ended at $12,955. The strategy uses dealer positioning data (GEX + Charm).

+29.5% ReturnShort Equity2 days avg8 min read
ShortGEXDealer PositioningNVDA

The Setup

Ever since Trump started threatening Iran back in January, NVDA has been stuck between $175 and $195. Buying dips kept failing. The trader realized the choppiness wasn't random — something was holding the stock in place. He paper traded for a month to figure it out, then went live.

What the AI Found

  1. 1.NVDA's Net GEX was elevated at $2.8M — well above the $1.1M threshold. When GEX is high and positive, market makers are pinning the stock: it goes up, they sell; it goes down, they buy. A giant invisible magnet pulling it back to the middle.
  2. 2.Charm was stable at -$103M, above the -$274M danger zone. This means the options hedge isn't melting — the pin is real, not dissolving. During the paper month, 70% of losing trades had Charm below -$274M. Xynth's backtest found this was the missing filter.
  3. 3.No major catalysts in the next 3 days. No earnings, no Fed speakers, no CPI. The Iran ceasefire framework was announced but IRGC rejected it — oil still at $89, chip routes still disrupted. Range-bound conditions intact.
  4. 4.The trade setup: short NVDA at $183.22, stop loss at $186.50 (above the GEX pin), 2-day target at $180.40. Risk/reward 1:0.86 but with a 77% hit rate the expected value is strongly positive.

The Trade

NVDA short at $183.22. Stop: $186.50. Target: $180.40. 2-day hold. Strategy: when GEX is high and Charm is stable, the market maker pin will pull price back to center.

The Result

$10,000 to $12,955 in 30 days. 13 trades, 10 wins, 3 losses. 77% win rate. Profit factor of 9.7x. Max drawdown 2.1%. The 7-trade win streak from trades 2-8 was the turning point. The three losses all had clear explanations: tariff chaos, a scratch trade, and an overcrowded pin.

The Prompt

What is NVDA's current Net GEX and Charm? Is Net GEX above $1.1M and Charm above -$274M?

If both conditions are met, move to this:

Deep dive NVDA news, X/Twitter sentiment, and upcoming catalysts for the next 3 days. Any earnings, Fed speakers, CPI prints, tariff announcements, or Iran developments that could break the range?

Based on today's GEX/Charm signal and the catalyst landscape, give me the trade: short entry, stop loss, and 2-day price target.